Country Report Taiwan

カントリーレポート

  • 台湾
  • 農業,
  • 自動車・輸送,

28 1 2016

Productivity increases and economic diversification are the main long-term challenges.

 

Taiwan key indicators
Taiwan industries performance outlook

 

Political situation

Head of state: President Ma Ying-jeou, Kuomintang (KMT), since May 2008, newly-elected president Tsai Ing-wen to take over in May 2016.

Government type: Multiparty democratic regime headed by popular vote-elected       president.

Population: 23.5 million

Relationship with China remains the key issue in Taiwanese politics

Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China will remain the dominant political issue for the island. The political scene is polarised between pro-unification parties (KMT, PFP and New Party) and pro-independence parties, mainly the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the DSU.

The mainland regards Taiwan as a ‘renegade province’ and has repeatedly threatened to invade the island in the event of a formal declaration of independence. Since President Ma came to power in 2009, he successfully sought to improve relations and deepen economic ties with China. In June 2013, China and Taiwan agreed on a Trade in Service Agreement (TISA). However, TISA is controversial in Taiwan because it is widely perceived as increasing Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. In November 2015 Taiwan’s President Ma met China’s President Xi Jinping in Singapore - the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries. However, the DPP won the January 2016 presidential and general elections, which could complicate relations with mainland China in the future.

Economic situation

Slowdown of growth due to decreasing exports

Taiwan real GDP growth

Taiwan succeeded in transforming itself from a developing nation into an industrial high-income country, focusing on the export of electronics and computer equipment, basic metals and plastics. Its economy is mainly export-oriented, with the export of goods and services accounting for more than 70% of GDP, and with 40% of outbound shipments -mostly electronic devices -destined for China.

This vulnerability became visible in 2015, as lower demand from China had its impact on exports, which contracted 0.1% year-on-year. Economic growth slowed down to 1.0% after 3.8% in 2014. In order to support growth, the Central Bank of Taiwan lowered the interest rate twice at the end of 2015. In 2016 a modest recovery to a 2% growth rate is expected, as investment, industrial production and exports are forecast to rebound.

Taiwan export of goods and non-factor services

That said, Taiwanese businesses not only suffer from decreased Chinese demand, but also from the fact that China’s industries increasingly climb up the technological value chain. As China competes in key sectors (e.g. semiconductors), Taiwan will have to look for new high value-added alternatives.

Therefore, productivity increases and the diversification of the economy are the main long-term challenges. The country also suffers from its political isolation, as other countries are reluctant to engage in free-trade talks with Taiwan. Yet Japan, South Korea and China - Taiwan’s main competitors - are signing many deals of their own.

Taiwan fiscal balance

Taiwan’s external financial situation is very solid. The current account surplus is very large and the country has ample foreign reserves. Taiwan’s robust economic fundamentals support its currency but the Central Bank of Taiwan regularly intervenes to prevent a sharp appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, which would hurt export competitiveness. The economy benefits from efficient goods and labour markets, a well-developed financial sector, as well as sophisticated education and healthcare systems and sound infrastructure.

 

免責条項

本ウェブサイトの記載事項は、一般的な情報提供のみを目的とし、何らの目的においてもこれに依拠すべきではありません。規定条件については、実際の保険契約または該当の製品・サービス契約をご覧ください。本ウェブサイトの記載事項は、買主についてのまたは利用者の代理人としてのデューデリジェンスの実施義務を含め、アトラディウス側に何らの権利、義務または責任を生じさせるものではありません。アトラディウスが買主についてデューデリジェンスを実施する場合は、当社の保険引受をその目的とし、被保険者その他の利益を目的とするものではありません。さらに、アトラディウスおよびその関連会社、系列会社、子会社は、本ウェブサイトの掲載情報の利用によって生じた直接的、間接的、特異的、付随的、結果的損害について一切の責任を負いません。